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According to a new poll by the Journal, slightly more Albuquerque voters are willing to vote for Tim Keller this fall than they think he’s doing a good job as mayor.
Although 53% of likely voters in the city say they voted for or will vote for Keller, their support rating is 50% in the same poll.
36 percent of likely voters disapprove of his work, and 12 percent say they have mixed feelings.
Keller, now ending his first term, has enjoyed higher ratings in the past; his job admission rate was 60% a year ago and 61% in 2018.
Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller. (Roberto E. Rosales / magazine)
Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling Inc. said there were likely several reasons for the decline, including crime. In 2021, Albuquerque still has months to go before breaking its annual record of killings. Meanwhile, Keller’s mayor’s opponents have spent months highlighting the continuing crime challenges in the city.
The pandemic can also be a factor. Polls have shown that most residents felt the city government responded well to COVID-19, which may have contributed to Keller’s 60% rating a year ago, but may not be a big part of voters’ minds today.
In addition, according to Sanderoff, support is dwindling.
“It’s hard to maintain high approval ratings during a mayor’s tenure,” said Sanderoff, whose Albuquerque firm conducted the survey.
Unsurprisingly, voters in the Democratic mayor’s own party are more aware of his job than Republicans.
Among the Democrats, Keller has an approval rate of 72% and a disagreement rate of 14%. For Republicans, it’s almost the other way round – 18% agree, 70% disagree.
A year ago, 33% of Republicans gave it a positive rating. Sanderoff attributes the decline, at least in part, to Keller’s more conservative mayoral contenders, Manuel Gonzales and Eddy Aragon, and hammers the message that he’s not fighting crime well.
Independent opinions are divided about Keller, with 40% agreeing and 41% rejecting it.
In other demographic breakdowns, women are more likely to give it positive ratings, with 56% agreeing, compared with 44% of men.
Although 80% of respondents who said they voted for Keller in the November 2nd election say they agree with him as mayor, 12% say they have mixed feelings and 7% say they oppose.
That is probably a statement about the entire mayor field, said Sanderoff.
“They don’t like the alternatives,” he said.
The Journal poll is based on a scientific, city-wide sample of 536 likely regular local election voters, including those who voted in the 2017 and / or 2019 local elections, and a small sample of newly registered voters expected to vote in 2021.
The survey was conducted from October 15 to October 21. The sample of voters has an error rate of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The error rate increases for partial samples.
All interviews were conducted by live professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households who did not initially answer the phone.
Both mobile phone numbers (82%) and landline connections (18%) were used.
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