For the third straight week, the Falcons face a rebuilding team led by a transfer quarterback as they take on New Mexico in Albuquerque, starting at 4:30 MT on FS2.
QB Terry Wilson joined the Lobos from Kentucky, where he competed for two years leading the team to the 17-8 record and completing 65% of their passes. The Lobos have a balanced attack with running backs Aaron Dumas and Bobby Cole and receivers Luke Wysong and Manny Logan-Green as primary targets. Logan-Green is also the team’s primary return man for both kickoffs and punt returns, and was superb in that role, averaging 31.8 yards per kickoff return and 42.5 yards on two punt returns.
Both teams come into play with question marks about the availability of the players. Last week the Lobos were missing six recipients due to Covid logs including Logan-Greene and it is unclear whether they will need logs for this game.
The Falcons don’t publish injury reports but missed their first and second string centers last week, and tight end Kyle Patterson is likely to at least suspend that game. David Cormier is out with a thigh injury and TD Blackmon is also out of defense.
analysis
The Falcons have made excellent progress on the offensive in the past few weeks. The offensive line is not as dominant as last year and after a shaky start it is very solid in execution and all skill positions are occupied by playmakers who make good contributions without the ball. Check out these two touchdowns and see how each position is involved in making the games happen.
Such blockages bring the hawks exactly where they want to be offensive. There may be some defenses in the mountains to the west that can interfere with this, but I don’t think New Mexico can consistently do this, even though Rocky Long is their defense coordinator. Combine that with an average of 25 yards per pass completion and this should enable the Falcons to win many games in the future. New Mexico has shown good defense against the run, only allowing 77 yards per game and an average of 2.7 yards per rush, so another 400 yard game may not take place, but 300 is not out of the question. I would advise the Falcons to remember what happened against New Mexico last year and stay tuned.
However, the defense has not yet convinced us of their strength. They kept FAU on 7 points in that game, but N’Kosi Perry had an unusually inaccurate game and it wasn’t all of the cover and the pass frenzy. Coverage has improved over the previous weeks and Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin improved well in the last game. Corvan Taylor positions himself so well that it always looks like the quarterback will suit him when he intercepts. It would be nice if some of the other DBs could add to the total wiretapping.
Terry Wilson is a proven quarterback talent, and the Air Force likely won’t be able to finish the passing game. The key will be to minimize the damage and force a few turnovers or important stops to give the attack another chance to score.
forecast
The current Vegas line has favored the Falcons with 10.5 points, with the over / under being 45.5 points.
I think the Falcons can continue their dominance in the ground game and New Mexico will be able to use Falcons secondary to make the game closer than expected; the hawks win 31-21. Take the crossing and take New Mexico +10.5.
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