LAS CRUCES – Southern New Mexico can get set for another La Niña winter, bringing a high probability for warmer, three winter months.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced their winter climate prediction for this upcoming season. This makes it the third consecutive La Niña winter for the area.
New Mexico Climatologist David DuBois explained that La Niña patterns start developing throughout the summer. Predictions are based on sea surface temperature off the coast of South America.
La Niña winters typically mean warmer, drier weather throughout the southwest. DuBois said storm systems can still come through the area, they will just likely be fewer drawing less precipitation. For southern New Mexico, this means less water filling reservoirs and a less northern snowpack to travel south in the spring and summer.
“That’s kind of the pattern that we’ve been seeing for the past two years,” DuBois said. “We had three La Niñas in a row, which doesn’t happen very often.”
He said that typically during a La Niña year, the jetstream is further north, picking up three airs. When it is further south, tropical moisture is picked up and dispersed. DuBois said occasional lows off of Baja may still bring some precipitation to New Mexico.
Sea surface temperatures indicate a more neutral winter season next year, but DuBois said it is still far too early for any formal predictions to be made about 2023.
DuBois added that it has been quite a while since the area has had a strong El Niño with lots of snow. But each year and each system that develops looks different and can be hard to predict.
“(The) further north you go, the better chances of snow, and that’s not a good sign for the Rio Grande or for the Colorado (river). More for the Rio Grande, that’s kind of our concern, because we’re only like 6% of capacity right now at Elephant Butte and there’s not a lot of water up north to transfer. So we’ll just have to wait to see what this winter, or wait till the following year, so that’s a long time to wait.”
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Leah Romero is the trending reporter at the Las Cruces Sun-News and can be reached at 575-418-3442, [email protected] or @rromero_leah on Twitter.
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