The average annual temperature of Las Cruces is expected to rise, according to climate experts from the state

The average temperature in New Mexico is expected to rise by about five degrees by the middle of the century. Key climate analysts say the hotter temperatures will affect everything from evaporation rates to snow cover.

Las Cruces is expected to get even hotter in the coming decades – according to modeling projections that predict future temperatures similar to current conditions in Phoenix, Arizona.

In a recent presentation, state climatologist David DuBois told Doña Ana County Planning and Zoning Commission members that the city’s average annual temperature could soar to 71.2 degrees by the end of the century.

“We are heading for a much warmer state, comparable to Phoenix,” said DuBois. “So this is very worrying. It should affect all of us that our climate is changing. We don’t know the future, but that is our possibility and it is very likely that it will go in that direction. “

These rising temperatures are expected to have a negative impact on the severity of future droughts. DuBois says the hotter temperatures will lower the snowpack and increase evaporation losses from the reservoirs.

“Rising temperatures are forcing future droughts to be worse than in the past,” Dubois said. “These droughts of the last 20 years are of course caused, but we are pushing them a little harder than they would have already occurred … and then we see a general trend in the amount of snow in our snowpack.”

Although no clear annual precipitation change is currently forecast, it is expected that seasonal precipitation patterns will change. Models show that both winter and spring will be drier, resulting in a lack of moisture for the soil.

In contrast, in the southwest corner of New Mexico, stronger monsoons are expected in the summer months. Water resources engineer Phil King, who recently retired from the civil engineering department of New Mexico State University, says more extreme rainfall events can ultimately lead to less aquifer recharge.

“Even if we have the same amount of rainfall, it can focus on fewer, more intense rainfall events, which is unfortunate as it leads to more flooding and less recharge and shorter streams and the like,” King said. “And because of the rise in temperature, we would find ourselves in a drier climate, even with constant rainfall.”

The state of New Mexico is currently developing a 50-year water plan and working on strategies to improve the state’s water future. King says he continues to hope that new solutions will be deployed to better adapt to rising temperatures.

“That may sound hopeless, but I’m actually optimistic about our future,” said King. “And that’s because I worked as an educator for 31 years training the daughters and sons of New Mexico in water resource engineering. And I have the hope that this next generation will adapt better to this increasingly dry climate than my generation. “

The 50-year water plan should be completed by the end of March.