The warming climate that has kept New Mexico in a drought for the past 20 years and depleted water supplies will continue into the next half century and must shape long-term planning, state officials said in a virtual hearing on Wednesday.
One expert painted a bleak picture of what the state will grapple with over the next 50 years – temperatures of up to 7 degrees, drier soils that reduce the runoff and replenishment of aquifers, higher evaporation and lower river flows, more intense forest fires that Landscapes become sterile and more prone to erosion, and warming waters become more prone to bacterial outbreaks.
In short, the amount and quality of water in the state will decrease significantly if effective measures are not taken.
“Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on New Mexico’s water resources are overwhelmingly negative,” said Nelia Dunbar, director of the state’s Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources.
In the webinar, Dunbar and Rolf Schmidt-Petersen, Director of the Interstate Stream Commission, discussed the harsh realities of a so-called mega-drought that is sweeping the Southwest as the world grapples with the billing for the massive greenhouse gases that have been released into the atmosphere in the past have been ejected for 150 years.
Her presentation marked the third phase of a 50-year water plan called for by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham in response to the New Mexico climate crisis.
Earlier phases included the preliminary planning and assessment of future threats to water resources. During this phase, scientists and other stakeholders are involved to develop strategies to counter the effects of climate change on water and make these resources more resilient or withstand warming trends.
The final phase will be to make recommendations to local, state and federal leaders over the next year.
Apart from the rain break in recent weeks, the state is in the most severe drought in the last 20 years, said Schmidt-Petersen.
This “exceptional drought” extends west to California and Nevada and shows signs of spreading to the northwest, he said.
The San Juan River basin, which is tied to the severely depleted Colorado River and a major source of New Mexico’s surface water, is experiencing an extraordinary drought, Schmidt-Petersen said.
Low river outflows help New Mexico reservoirs sink to historic lows and give water managers no buffer to survive the summer.
But with climate change, any 50-year water plan based on current or past weather patterns will be flawed, he said.
“We also have to look ahead,” said Schmidt-Petersen.
A group of climatologists recently published a study suggesting the southwest was in the middle of the worst drought since the late 16th century. Part of this is due to La Niña, a cooling event in the Pacific Ocean that drives storms north as they near the continent, making the southwest drier.
The breakup of La Niña has resulted in some welcome rains in the past few weeks, but the humidity barely throws the persistent drought conditions in the way.
Overall, precipitation will stay about the same for the next half century, but less of it will replenish the water supply, as warmer air causes more evaporation and contains more water than cooler air, Dunbar said.
Hotter temperatures will make the soil drier, which will result in more rain and melting snow being absorbed into the upper layers of the soil rather than flowing into rivers or aquifers, she said.
The more intense heat will dry out the soil, creating nutrient-poor dirt and drying out vegetation, turning some forests into tinder boxes. This will fuel more forest fires, which in turn will scorch the hillside terrain, exposing it and making it more prone to erosion, she said.
She found that a recent study by the state Department of the Environment identified 2,300 miles of New Mexico streams that were warmer than they should be.
Water that is too warm can breed bacteria like E. coli, she said. It can also become uninhabitable for certain fish.
A graphic presented by Dunbar clearly illustrated how temperatures will rise in relation to global greenhouse gas emissions. The more these gases are contained, the less warming occurs.
It shows the simple fact that people can take action to prevent the worst of scenarios, she said.
Still, it is better to use adaptive strategies to prepare for the effects of climate change, Dunbar said.
“The climate in New Mexico is warming,” said Dunbar. “The question is, how much will it continue to climb?”
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