- Below average rainfall and above average temperatures are expected for the American Southwest this winter.
- All of New Mexico is experiencing some form of drought, and more than 50% of the state is experiencing extreme or exceptional drought.
- Dry conditions across New Mexico were accompanied by unusually warm temperatures this fall.
FARMINGTON – Those who counted on the fall and winter of New Mexico residents to provide some relief from the unusually dry weather the state has experienced for most of this year are likely to be disappointed as conditions change over the next several months likely to get worse.
This is announced by the National Weather Service in Albuquerque. Meteorologist Clay Anderson said a La Niña climate pattern has evolved, meaning that below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected for the American Southwest this winter.
“That doesn’t bode well for us in general,” said Anderson, adding that the short-term forecast was no better. “There is no relief in sight for the next seven to ten days.”
Even before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its La Niña warning last month, it was clear that New Mexico was already in a bad position when it came to precipitation. The state had experienced a dry winter, an early onset of summer, and another almost non-existent monsoon season, making the entire state ache for moisture.
Anderson said when the data for the U.S. Drought Monitor was updated on Oct. 6, all of New Mexico was affected by some form of drought, and more than 50% of the state was suffering from extreme (the second worst category) or exceptional drought (the worst Category).
“This category (exceptional drought) is likely to expand significantly in the coming weeks,” he said.
Of the state’s 33 counties, portions of 17 are experiencing exceptional drought, and these counties are scattered across the state, from the northwest, north-central, southwest, and southeast.
Anderson said most of the state saw little to no rainfall for most of 2020, save for part of south-central New Mexico, which is one of the few parts of the state that experiences moderate drought.
Las Cruces, for example, had drawn 6.3 inches of rainfall at its reporting station at the Coop of New Mexico State University by October 8, which was not much less than the normal total of about 7 inches for that date. Anderson noted that the total amount was greatly improved by the 2.64 inches of moisture Las Cruces received in March.
Clayton, in far east New Mexico, is also doing comparatively well, reporting 10.73 inches of rainfall as of October 8, although that city was still well below its normal total of 14.18 inches for that date.
Other parts of the state are not so lucky. Albuquerque was only 5.3 inches so far, Anderson said, and its year-to-date total is typically 7.68 inches. Roswell had reported 5.37 inches of moisture as of October 8, less than half of its normal total of 10.8 inches for that date. And Farmington had only got 2.69 inches, well below the normal total of about 6 inches for the year to date.
“Oh wow, Farmington hurts a lot,” said Anderson, checking the numbers. “… This is worse than Roswell.”
Santa Fe had received 6.25 inches of moisture by October 8, but that number pale in comparison to its normal total of about 10.5 inches for that date.
New Mexico is hardly alone with droughts. Numerous counties in Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona are also marked by exceptional drought, and there is not a single county among the five states that is free from some drought.
Misery loves company, it seems.
“Yeah, that’s a good way to put it,” said Anderson, adding that such a widespread drought would have severe repercussions on the entire region in terms of water supplies, rivers, the skiing industry and forest fires.
The Rio Grande River south of Albuquerque has slackened significantly in recent months, Anderson said, although it has not yet run dry.
“There’s still a little flow,” he said. “But I have no doubt that it will come.”
Anderson said it can be difficult to predict when a La Niña will end, but he stated that computer modeling of such phenomena has improved in recent years and there is evidence that this year’s La Niña will not go on indefinitely will move.
“It is predicted that it will continue to intensify over the winter months,” he said. “But in spring and definitely in summer it should be neutral again.”
That timeframe would make this La Niña relatively short, he said.
“Hopefully we don’t get a double dip,” said Anderson. “We’ve had La Niña years in a row.”
Dry conditions across New Mexico were accompanied by unusually warm temperatures this fall – another trend that is unlikely to change, Anderson said. The NOAA forecast through December calls for above-average temperatures for the entire region, with the center of this hot zone being directly centered on New Mexico – an indication that federal officials have cited a high level of confidence in this assessment for the land of enchantment.
“It’s just a new normal for us and that’s not going to change anytime soon,” said Anderson.
In addition to recording daily high and low temperatures for communities across the state, the NWS also tracks average daily temperatures – a number that can provide a better picture of how comparatively warm or cool a given location was, he said.
According to Anderson, most parts of New Mexico were about 5.5 degrees above normal that month, but others are way above normal. Farmington, for example, averaged 10 degrees above normal in October, while Roswell, where temperatures lasted until the mid-1990s, was 16 degrees warmer than average.
The state is expected to see a brief cool-down this weekend, but Anderson said it likely won’t last. By October 14, Farmington temperatures are set to be back 10 degrees warmer than average, and other parts of the state will follow suit, he said.
“That tells you how bad it is when these cool fronts get through and all they do is make us close to normal,” said Anderson.
Even if the driest counties in the state were to experience unexpected rainfall in the coming weeks, Anderson stated that it would be little more than a moral victory.
“It won’t affect our drought,” he said, explaining that only a long-term change in weather pattern in the southwest will have a significant impact on conditions. This means that the chances are good that 2021 won’t be noticeably wetter than its predecessor.
“… When we get into these situations, it’s hard to get out of them,” said Anderson.
Mike Easterling can be reached at 505-564-4610 or [email protected]. Support local journalism with a digital subscription.
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